Indivisibles,
This is a little long, but things are about to get SERIOUS — so take the time to read it. We need ALL HANDS ON DECK, because we CAN stop this!
Let’s talk about reconciliation.
Reconciliation is the main legislative maneuver used to pass bills in the Senate with just 51 votes, instead of the 60 normally needed to overcome the filibuster. It essentially lets the party in power push bills through without bipartisan support. It’s how George W. Bush passed two rounds of tax cuts for the rich in 2001 and 2003, how Trump passed his original tax scam in 2017, and how Biden passed the Inflation Reduction Act.
And it’s now how Trump plans to pass his legislative agenda. That agenda is, in short, a massive tax cut to the rich that also kicks 14 million people off Medicaid and other healthcare, defunds reproductive care clinics like Planned Parenthood, and slashes food assistance for kids, veterans, and seniors.
Let’s focus on what we can do.
Republicans are trying to make rancid sausage.
Mike Johnson doesn’t have the votes yet. On Wednesday, in an effort to fully win over the MAGA and pro-billionaire factions, he’s going to make the bill even worse and even more unpopular. If they then manage to bring MAGA and pro-billionaires together without a revolt from the vulnerable frontliners, the bill will pass the House and go to the Senate — as soon as this week.
The Senate will make their own amendments to the bill, some of which will piss off the House MAGA, pro-billionaire, and/or the frontliners. Mike Johnson will then present that Senate bill as “the best we can get” and hope the GOP caucus accepts it. They would like to get this done in June — far later than they originally planned — but more likely, even an optimistic timeline stretches to July.
Or maybe the sausage just doesn’t get made. Maybe the House fails to pass their bill. Or, after passing the bill, maybe the Senate fails to pass their version of the bill. Or, after the Senate passes their bill, maybe Mike Johnson can’t unify his caucus. Or maybe the whole thing just drags out until September, when Congress faces a funding cliff and complicates the negotiations even further.
The bottom line here is that the Republican agenda is not guaranteed — and this uncertainty gives us an opportunity for action.
Learning from the last failed Republican reconciliation bill. Reconciliation is powerful, but it’s not a guaranteed win for the ruling party. Indivisible’s first major legislative campaign in 2017 was around a reconciliation bill — the attempt to repeal the Affordable Care Act. During this months-long campaign we had a simple strategy:
- Delay.
- Toxify the bill with public opposition.
- Target pressure on the weakest parts of the MAGA coalition.
Back then, Republicans thought repealing the ACA would be easy. But as we and others amped up grassroots pressure across the country, they struggled. After months of infighting, failures, and delays, the House finally managed to pass its reconciliation bill repealing the Affordable Care Act in May of 2017 (yes, 8 years ago exactly). The sausage was made! Or was it?
The reconciliation bill then went to the Senate, where we targeted pressure on Susan Collins, Lisa Murkowski, Jerry Moran, and John McCain, among others. Week after week, we hammered Republicans for their support in the press and on the streets, and Senate Republicans could not show up in public without massive public pushback.
And then… the sausage didn’t get made. The Senate tried various different versions of a repeal but they couldn’t get the votes. The reconciliation bill was delayed until it was defeated. The Republicans would go on to pass the Trump Tax Scam with reconciliation, but the Affordable Care Act survived.
The people don’t like rancid sausage.
What we need now. There isn’t a congressional district in this country where cutting Medicaid has more than 15% support. This is a bill that Members of Congress should be politically scared to support. This is a bill that should drag out because lawmakers are getting cold feet. This is not a bill that should pass quickly, quietly, or without mass opposition.
This is a live fight. Republicans would like it to be easy. We can guarantee it won’t be. But it’s up to us to do it.
So on Tuesday we are MELTING the GOP phones. We’re joining Public Citizen and Americans for Tax Fairness to lead a national call-in that overwhelms GOP phones in opposition to their reconciliation bill! https://indivisible.org/resource/call-now-tell-your-republican-representative-you-dont-want-pay-price-their-billionaire-tax
Need a reminder? Add your phone number here to get a text from Indivisible when it’s time to call. https://act.indivisible.org/signup/get-text-updates-indivisible/
This will be one of your most important Actions Of The Day this year, so SHARE and SHARE widely!
On Tuesday, we give them NO PEACE!!